A recent public opinion poll shows San Antonio Strongly Supports The Secure San Antonio’s Future PAC Vote No on Propositions A, B, and C; it is likely all 3 city charter amendments will be defeated in the November 2018 election. The poll was conducted by Opinion Strategies, a political consulting and opinion polling firm in San Antonio and has a margin of error of +/- 4.4 percent. Opinion Strategies said they are not working for either side of the proposed amendments.
Proposition A, which relaxes the requirements for citizen groups to place an ordinance on the ballot, had 29% support vs 49% opposition, while 22% said they were undecided.
Proposition B, which limits the salary of the San Antonio City Manager, had 50% opposition compared to 35% in favor of the amendment, with 15% undecided.
Proposition C, and the most controversial proposal that calls for binding arbitration between the firefighter and the City, has only 29% support and 47% opposition. Twenty four percent are undecided.
“Clearly, the voters are not in favor of making these types of changes at this moment in time,” said Dionisio Salazar, president of Opinion Strategies. “The opposition to these amendments has done a better job of getting their message to the voters and generating support across party lines and voter groups,” he said. Dionisio attributed the pending victory to the Secure San Antonio Future PAC due to the overwhelming financial support and resources devoted to the Vote No campaign. The PAC has been far superior in generating support across civic groups, and placing intense scrutiny on Chris Steele, President of San Antonio Professional Firefighters Association, whose organization championed the proposed amendments to the ballot.
Three proposed city charter amendments on the November 6th, 2018 ballot appear to be headed for defeat. A recent opinion survey by conducted by Opinion Strategies, a political consulting and polling firm, indicates that support for the amendments is weak.
• Favorable support for all three amendments ranged from 29% to 35%.
• Opposition to the amendments ranged from 47% to 50%.
Opinion Strategies conducted a robo-poll of San Antonio likely voters. The poll was conducted from October 9th – 16th. Five hundred voters participated in an automated robo-poll. Voters were asked if they supported or opposed each of the three city charter amendments. These amendments involve: A) a process that makes it easier to place a proposed ordinance on a city wude referendum. B) placement of limitations on City Manager’s salary, and C) binding arbitration option for San Antonio firefights and the City of San Antonio.
A. Process for Citizen Proposed Ordinances Proposition A allows for citizen groups to place proposed ordinances on city wide referendums by decreasing the number of required signatures from 70,000 to 20,000 voters. The time period for gathering these signatures is lengthened from 40 to 180 days. 29% of voters were in favor of the amendment. This was in contrast to 49% of voters who opposed the amendment. Men (51%) were more opposed to this amendment than women (47%). Opposition to the amendment was significantly higher for non-Hispanic (53%) versus Hispanic (41%) voters. Opposition to this amendment was similar for both Democratic (48%) and Republican (51%) voters. Voters in County Commissioner Precinct 4 were most in favor (44%) of the amendment. Voters in Precinct 3 had the highest opposition (58%)
B. Limitation of City Manager’s Salary Proposition B places limits on the amount of salary that the City Manager can received. Specifically, the city manager’s salary cannot exceed the equivalent of 10 times the lowest paid city employee. Employment tenure is also limited to eight years. 35% of voters indicated they were in favor of this amendment. This was the highest support of all the amendments. Opposition to the amendment (50%). Men (51%) were slightly more opposed to the amendment than women (49%). Hispanic (46%) and Non-Hispanic voters (52%) had similar opposition to the amendment. Democratic (51%) and Republican (50%) voters were similarly opposed to the amendment. Voters in Precinct 2 were most in favor (41%) of the amendment. Voters in Precinct 4 had the greatest opposition (57%).
C. Binding Arbitration for Firefighters Association and City Proposition C allows for binding arbitration in the event the Firefighters Association and City of San Antonio can not reach agreement on a labor contract. The proposition allows the firefighter’s association to decide when negotiations are stalled and an arbitrator is needed. 29% of voters were in favor of this amendment. This is lowest level of support of all three amendments. 47% of voters opposed the amendment. Men (51%) indicated more opposition to the amendment than women (44%). Hispanic (44%) and Non-Hispanic (45%) were similarly opposed to the amendment. Republican (51%) voters were somewhat more opposed to the amendment than Democrats (45%). Voters in Precinct 4 were most in favor (38%) of the amendment. Voters in Precinct 3 had the greatest level of opposition (56%) to the amendment.
Methodology Surveys were conducted during a two-week time period running from October 9th – 16th, 2018. A random sample of 500 San Antonio voters were interviewed for the survey. The survey was conducted through a robo-poll methodology also known as automatic dialing. Participants were asked questions regarding their
opinions of the three city charter amendments. The margin of error for the poll is 4.38%.
Demographic Profile The demographic profile for the survey respondents was 45% male and 55% females. Hispanics represented 36% of the sample. Non-Hispanics were 64% % of the sample. Democrats were 53% of the sample. Republicans were 47%. Geographic distribution of the sample by County Commissioner precinct was: Precinct 1 – 33%, Precinct 2 – 25%, Precinct 3 – 39%, Precinct 4 – 3%.
Background Opinion Strategies is a San Antonio political campaign and opinion polling firm. Gabriel Salazar has many years experience working in political campaigns in south Texas. Dionisio Salazar has a broad range of experience in opinion research, non-profit work and community development initiatives.